From pre-development to export
A four-phase plan spanning feasibility, construction, scale-up, and Asia-Pacific export readiness.
Phase 0
$500K - $1M
Site leases, feasibility study, seed funding, First Nations engagement framework, FEED study, MPO referral
Phase 1
$90.6M - $316.7M
Electrolyzer, dispensing hub, tube trailer distribution, first offtakers, pyrolysis pilot
Phase 2
Full electrolyzer capacity, pyrolysis scale-up, remaining offtakers, FortisBC gas blending
Phase 3
Green steel corridor, Elk Valley HBI facility (250,000 t/yr base case, 36,986 kg/day industrial H2), Asia-Pacific green HBI export, coal workforce transition. Phase 3 adds $25.4M/yr on top of Phase 1 baseline → $63.6M combined EBITDA.
Current status
- Executive briefing V6 complete
- Economic model draft complete
- 30+ organizations identified across value chain
- Burrard Thermal site analysis complete
- BC Hydro site lease agreement
- VFPA land lease for Waterfront hub
- UVic IESVic feasibility study
- NRCan / ISED funding application
- NorthX Climate Tech seed funding
- MPO referral as Project of National Interest
- First Nations engagement and equity framework
Phase deliverables
Funding by phase
Mapping of funding instruments to project phases. All figures in $CAD.
| Funding instrument | Phase 0 | Phase 1 | Phase 2 | Phase 3 | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry equity | Ballard, Corvus, Indigenous | Equity | |||
| NorthX Climate Tech | Seed funding | Non-dilutive grant / repayable | |||
| Canada Infrastructure Bank | $337M precedent (HTEC) | Loan | |||
| Provincial LCFS Initiative | $133M precedent (HTEC) | Initiative Agreements | |||
| NRCan Clean Fuels Fund | Co-sponsor | Production infrastructure | Grant | ||
| Transport Canada ZETF | Transit + marine | Grant | |||
| ISED Strategic Innovation Fund | $49M precedent (HTEC) | Grant / loan | |||
| PacifiCan | Regional development | Grant | |||
| Budget 2025 Super-Deduction | Immediate expensing | Tax incentive | |||
| $5B Trade Diversification Fund | Port and rail infrastructure | Federal programme | |||
| Major Projects Office | Referral | Fast-track permitting | Designation | ||
| UVic research funding | Feasibility TEA | NSERC / internal | |||
| DND IDEaS Program | H2 storage R&D ($6.75M) | Grant (phased) |
Risk register
Key project risks assessed by likelihood and impact, with specific mitigation strategies.
BC Hydro declines site lease
Multiple industrial reuse proponents strengthens case. Port Moody council actively seeking reuse. Fallback: alternative brownfield industrial sites in Metro Vancouver (e.g. Deltaport area).
BCUC blocks Burrard reuse
BCUC jurisdiction is decommissioning, not reuse. Site lease is a BC Hydro real estate decision. Federal Major Projects Office designation may override provincial process.
Key offtakers don't commit
12 applications provide redundancy - no single offtaker exceeds 25% of demand. Shared infrastructure economics improve with each additional offtaker. Phase 1 viable with 4 offtakers only.
Battery-electric displaces hydrogen
BEV competitive for short-range, light-duty only. Marine, heavy rail, port cranes, and aviation require hydrogen energy density. PDEC targets applications where BEV is technically infeasible.
CIB/federal funding not secured
Multiple funding pathways (CIB, LCFS, ZETF, SIF, PacifiCan, Budget 2025). HTEC precedent ($337M CIB investment commitment + $133M LCFS + $49M SIF). Provincial instruments available independently.
Carbon product price below modelled
Modelled at $1,500/t (upper end of Ekona $800-$1,500 range). Project economics positive at $1,000/t ($101.9M annual value) and at $800/t floor (pyrolysis LCOH still $0.10/kg). 65/35 electrolysis-dominant split means project is viable without any carbon revenue.
Construction cost overruns
$90.6M-$316.7M range already spans 65% variance. Burrard existing infrastructure saves $10M-$20M. Fixed-price EPC contracts for electrolyzer and compression. Phased build allows scope adjustment.
Environmental contamination at Burrard
Phase 0 includes site condition assessment. BC Hydro responsible for pre-existing contamination under Environmental Management Act. Remediation costs do not transfer to lessee.
Defense offtaker timeline uncertainty
DND procurement cycles are 3-7 years. Shore power (medium-high confidence, 3-5 yr) is the near-term anchor. Submarine refueling and SAF are upside scenarios. Project economics are positive without any defense demand. Multiple civilian offtakers provide baseline regardless of military timeline.
First Nations opposition
Early engagement from inception. Four Nations have existing clean energy activity in the region (Tsleil-Waututh/GCT, Haisla/HaiSea, Squamish/UBC). Project designed to offer equity participation and revenue sharing from day one.