From pre-development to export
A four-phase plan spanning feasibility, construction, scale-up, and Asia-Pacific export readiness.
Phase 0
$500K - $1M
Site leases, feasibility study, seed funding, First Nations framework, FEED study, MPO referral
Phase 1
$160M - $265M
Electrolyzer, dispensing hub, tube trailer distribution, first offtakers, pyrolysis pilot
Phase 2
Full electrolyzer capacity, pyrolysis scale-up, remaining offtakers, FortisBC gas blending
Phase 3
Asia-Pacific export, additional BC ports, national template, trade diversification
Current status
- Executive briefing V6 complete
- Economic model draft complete
- 30+ partners identified across value chain
- Burrard Thermal site analysis complete
- BC Hydro site lease agreement
- VFPA land lease for Waterfront hub
- UVic IESVic feasibility study
- NRCan / ISED funding application
- NorthX Climate Tech seed funding
- MPO referral as Project of National Interest
- First Nations partnership framework
Phase deliverables
Pre-development
First hydrogen
Scale-up
Export and national scale
Funding by phase
Mapping of funding instruments to project phases. All figures in $CAD.
| Funding instrument | Phase 0 | Phase 1 | Phase 2 | Phase 3 | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NorthX Climate Tech | Seed funding | Non-dilutive grant / repayable | |||
| NRCan Clean Fuels Fund | Co-sponsor | Production infrastructure | Grant | ||
| UVic research funding | Feasibility TEA | NSERC / internal | |||
| Canada Infrastructure Bank | $337M precedent (HTEC) | Loan | |||
| Provincial LCFS Initiative | $133M precedent (HTEC) | Initiative Agreements | |||
| Transport Canada ZETF | Transit + marine | Grant | |||
| ISED Strategic Innovation Fund | $49M precedent (HTEC) | Grant / loan | |||
| PacifiCan | Regional development | Grant | |||
| Budget 2025 Super-Deduction | Immediate expensing | Tax incentive | |||
| $5B Trade Diversification Fund | Port and rail infrastructure | Federal programme | |||
| Major Projects Office | Referral | Fast-track permitting | Designation | ||
| Industry equity | Ballard, Corvus, Indigenous | Equity |
Risk register
Key project risks assessed by likelihood and impact, with specific mitigation strategies.
BC Hydro declines site lease
Multiple industrial reuse proponents strengthens case. Port Moody council actively seeking reuse. Fallback: alternative brownfield industrial sites in Metro Vancouver (e.g. Deltaport area).
BCUC blocks Burrard reuse
BCUC jurisdiction is decommissioning, not reuse. Site lease is a BC Hydro real estate decision. Federal Major Projects Office designation may override provincial process.
Rate 1894 expires before full build
Rate steps down (20% yr 1-5, 13% yr 6, 7% yr 7, expires 2037). Phase 1 electrolyzer operational by 2028-2030, capturing peak discount years. Pyrolysis pathway independent of electricity rate.
Key offtakers don't commit
12 applications provide redundancy - no single offtaker exceeds 25% of demand. Shared infrastructure economics improve with each additional offtaker. Phase 1 viable with 4 offtakers only.
Battery-electric displaces hydrogen
BEV competitive for short-range, light-duty only. Marine, heavy rail, port cranes, and aviation require hydrogen energy density. PDEC targets applications where BEV is technically infeasible.
CIB/federal funding not secured
Multiple funding pathways (CIB, LCFS, ZETF, SIF, PacifiCan, Budget 2025). HTEC precedent ($337M CIB + $133M LCFS + $49M SIF). Provincial instruments available independently.
Carbon product price below base case
Base case $1,500/t is conservative (Ekona $800-$1,500 range). Project economics positive even at $1,000/t. Sensitivity analysis shows $101.9M annual value at $1,000/t vs $104.8M base case.
Construction cost overruns
$160M-$265M range already spans 65% variance. Burrard existing infrastructure saves $10-20M. Fixed-price EPC contracts for electrolyzer and compression. Phased build allows scope adjustment.
Environmental contamination at Burrard
Phase 0 includes site condition assessment. BC Hydro responsible for pre-existing contamination under Environmental Management Act. Remediation costs do not transfer to lessee.
First Nations opposition
Early engagement from inception. Four Nations have existing clean energy partnerships (Tsleil-Waututh/GCT, Haisla/HaiSea, Squamish/UBC). Equity participation and revenue sharing from day one.
Project champions
Vincent Royer, PMP
MBA Candidate, Sustainable Innovation, UVic Gustavson (2025-2027)
PM, Canada's first hydrogen fuel cell RTG crane (DP World, Port of Vancouver)
TBD
Operations / Energy Systems Lead
TBD
Government Relations / Policy Lead
TBD
First Nations Partnership Lead