Aerial view of the Crofton mill site on Vancouver Island, showing the industrial waterfront, Shoal Island dock, log booms, and the surrounding coastal landscape looking toward Saltspring Island.

The Crofton site — 107 hectares of waterfront industrial land with grid interconnection, deep-water port, natural gas pipeline, and biomass handling already in place. Looking east across Stuart Channel toward Saltspring Island.

25,852
kg H2 per day
Phase 1, tri-pathway
$3.03
blended LCOH per kg
Net of byproduct credits
$36.8M
EBITDA per year
40.9% margin on $89.9M PDEC revenue, 6.4-yr payback
-122
gCO2e/MJ (BECCS pathway)
Blends Crofton to carbon-negative

Why Crofton

PDEC is a corridor, not a single project. Each site serves its own catchment; together they form one network.

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Vancouver Island geography

On-island production serves Island offtakers directly. No barging across the Strait of Georgia for every delivery.

Infrastructure already built

138 kV grid, 61.5M m³/yr water licence, deep-water dock, FortisBC gas pipeline, biomass handling. Not a greenfield.

Independent economics

Crofton and Burrard each stand on their own numbers. Corridor synergy is additive, not required.

What we're proposing

Three hydrogen production pathways operating from day one. Each uses what the site enables.

PEM Electrolysis

Share: 50%  |  Output: 12,926 kg/day

32 MW on BC Hydro 138 kV interconnection. Grid is 98% clean.

Methane Pyrolysis

Share: 30%  |  Output: 7,756 kg/day

~7.5 TPD Ekona xCaliber on existing FortisBC pipeline. Solid carbon byproduct.

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Biomass + BECCS

Share: 20%  |  Output: 5,170 kg/day

~5 TPD from coastal slash piles. Carbon-negative with BECCS.

Production & revenue flow

Four feedstocks flow through three production processes (electrolysis + pyrolysis + biomass+BECCS) into products, an e-fuel synthesis layer (methanol, bio-LNG, renewable diesel), and offtakers + co-product markets. All flows in $M CAD/yr. Hover any node to trace its connections.

The numbers

Phase 1 base-case economics. All figures CAD.

Pathway economics

Pathway Share Output (kg/day) Gross LCOH Net LCOH
PEM Electrolysis50%12,926$4.79/kg$4.79/kg
Methane Pyrolysis30%7,756$2.50/kg-$2.00/kg (carbon credit)
Biomass + BECCS20%5,170$4.00/kg$3.20/kg (biochar + seq)
Blended100%25,852$3.03/kg

Capex

$348M
Phase 1 capex
Tri-pathway, all-in
$236M
Net after ITC
40% Clean H2 ITC (refundable)
$18.8M
EBITDA with no subsidies
Survives full policy rollback

PDEC revenue (base case, per year)

H2 sales (9.44M kg at $5/kg gate price)$47.2M
BC Low Carbon Fuel Standard credits$18.0M
Solid carbon byproduct$12.7M
Oxygen byproduct$5.7M
District heat$3.3M
Grid services$1.5M
Biochar byproduct$0.6M
Sequestered CO2 credit$0.9M
Total PDEC revenue$89.9M
Plus diesel savings captured by offtakers (beyond $5/kg gate)+$46.6M
Plus social value (carbon + healthcare externalities)+$67.4M
Total annual economic value created$203.9M

PDEC revenue is what PDEC actually earns. Diesel savings and social value represent benefits accruing to offtakers and society respectively, on top of PDEC's sale price.

Environmental impact

58.6M
litres diesel displaced/yr
Across VI offtaker sectors
157,099
tonnes CO2 displaced/yr
~34,152 cars equivalent
Negative
blended carbon intensity
Biomass + BECCS pathway

Who we'd serve

Vancouver Island addressable demand at PDEC's $4-5/kg target gate price: approximately 33,000 kg/day. These are fleet-size estimates, not signed contracts.

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Marine & ferry

BC Ferries Route 6 (candidate anchor pilot, terminal at the mill gate). MV Coho. Canadian Coast Guard Pacific. Marine industrial.

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Transit & road

Cowichan Valley Regional Transit (Duncan depot is CNG-ready). Victoria Regional Transit. CRD/CVRD/RDN heavy fleets. Mosaic forestry trucks. BCEHS, Island Health.

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Industrial

Western Forest Products Chemainus (kiln blending). Catalyst Paper Port Alberni. Coastland Wood. FortisBC gas blending.

Defense, federal & flagship

GVHA Ogden Point cruise terminal (H2 power barge alternative to abandoned $159M shore-power project). CFB Esquimalt. CFB Comox. CCG Pacific. DFO, RCMP, ECCC.

Core thesis: operators pivoting to battery-electric aren't rejecting hydrogen on technical grounds — they're rejecting $14-16/kg retail pricing. At $4-5/kg delivered, the math flips. PDEC creates the supply; demand follows.

Working with First Nations

The Crofton site is on unceded Quw'utsun territory. Halalt, Cowichan Tribes, Penelakut, and Lyackson hold interests. Indigenous partnership is structural, not afterthought.

Cowichan 2025 decision

Cowichan Tribes v. Canada (AG), 2025 BCSC 1490 — first Canadian ruling recognizing Aboriginal title over fee-simple land. It changes the transaction structure for any industrial acquisition in BC.

Equity partnership

Target: 25-49% Indigenous equity via the federal $5B Indigenous Loan Guarantee Program + BC's $1B Equity Financing Framework. Kruger Kamloops and Hydrogen Naturally Fort Nelson as precedents.

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How we engage

Dr. Matt Murphy (UVic Gustavson, Balance Co-Lab) leads engagement under FPIC protocols. Water and weir governance structured through the Cowichan Watershed Board. No acquisition without a DRIPA-compliant framework.

What it means for the community

The mill closure displaced ~500 workers and removed the largest taxpayer. Replacement has to answer for jobs, taxes, and the village water utility.

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Jobs

Approximately 40 direct operations FTEs at Phase 1 steady-state (per model staffing budget), plus construction-phase employment and ongoing indirect employment across feedstock supply, maintenance contractors, and logistics. Process control, trades, and power systems skills transfer directly from mill to hydrogen operations.

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Municipal tax base

Industrial redevelopment restores North Cowichan's largest single tax contribution. Intent: return the site to its historical role as the principal employer and taxpayer.

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Village water utility

Dec 31, 2026 deadline: Domtar's commitment expires. PDEC proposes a funded tripartite transition to the appropriate municipal authority with CVRD and North Cowichan, not indefinite operator responsibility.

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Cowichan Lake weir

Proposed transfer of weir operations and water licence to the Cowichan Watershed Board. PDEC accesses water under commercial supply agreement rather than by holding the licence.

Infrastructure already in place

Crofton is not a greenfield. Decades of heavy-industrial buildout stay in service.

Electrical

Two dedicated 138 kV BC Hydro circuits terminate at the site, ~9 km from Vancouver Island Terminal. No new substation capex.

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Water

~61.5M m³/yr licensed on the Cowichan system. Phase 1 electrolyzer demand is <1% of volume. Seasonal drought, not volume, is the constraint.

Marine terminal

Three Panamax-capable berths on Shoal Island (136-163m length, 9.2-10.8m depth). Supports barge distribution corridor synergy.

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Natural gas pipeline

FortisBC high-pressure pipeline on-site. Feedstock for pyrolysis — no new pipeline construction or permitting.

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Biomass handling

Existing bunkers, conveyors, drying systems from ~87% biomass energy operation. Adaptable to the biomass-to-hydrogen pathway.

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Zoning & land

107 hectares (264 acres) of heavy-industrial zoned waterfront land. North Cowichan OCP supports marine + industrial. No rezoning required.

Risks we acknowledge

An honest stakeholder-facing summary. Click any card for detail on how we address each risk.

Environmental remediation

68 years of kraft pulp. BC EMA liability is absolute and retroactive. Baseline estimate $40-85M. Addressed via indemnification, phased remediation with AiP, PLL insurance, and ring-fenced project-cos.

Water licence transfer

WSA prioritizes environmental flow; Cowichan Watershed Board co-governance applies. Addressed via multi-season baseline monitoring, wastewater reclamation, and SWRO drought backup.

Indigenous consent (critical path)

Post-Cowichan 2025, DRIPA-compliant IBA required before construction debt. Addressed via 25-49% Indigenous equity via ILGP, FPIC protocols, no acquisition without framework.

BC Hydro interconnection

Mill operated as load displacement. CBLI System Impact Study confirms deliverable capacity. Tri-pathway architecture reduces single-point dependency on electrolysis load.

Village water utility deadline

Dec 31, 2026 handover. Addressed via tripartite transition plan with CVRD and North Cowichan, funded assistance, separate utility project-co.

Supply chain lead times

Electrolyzer stacks 18-24 months, specialized transformers similar. Addressed via early orders with partial payment pre-FID and dual-sourcing where viable.

Status and timeline

In consideration today. Pre-development workstreams active. Phased build-out from 2028.

Phase 0

2026-2027

Indigenous engagement + IBA. BC Hydro CBLI. Phase I/II ESA. Water flow monitoring. Offtaker LOIs. Village water transition planning.

Phase 1

2028-2030 | ~$348M

FID. Tri-pathway build-out: 32 MW PEM + 7.5 TPD pyrolysis + 5 TPD biomass+BECCS. BC Hydro upgrades. Commissioning. First offtakers (Route 6 pilot, CVRT, WFP).

Phase 2

2030-2032

Offtaker expansion (Victoria Transit, CFB Esquimalt, CCG, GVHA cruise-terminal barge). Mainland barge corridor activation. Byproduct revenue scaling.

Phase 3

2033+

Full corridor operations. Export-scale green industrial products. Expanded federal + defense commitments.

Get involved

First Nations, offtakers, municipal partners, unions, community stakeholders, and prospective co-investors — reach out.

Email info@pdec.ca Crofton Executive Brief (PDF)